Angola, Atchafalaya basin, Baton Rouge, Big Easy, Big One, Bonnet Carre Spillway, crime, Gulf of Mexico, insouciance, Lake Ponchartrain, levee, levee failure, levees, Louisiana State Prison Angola, Mississippi River, Mississippi River Commission, Mississippi Sound, Morganza, Morganza spillway, MRC, New Orleans, nuclear disaster, Pelosi, Planning, Richard Kaiser, risk management, Southeast Louisiana, Trump, Trump Administration, Waterford nuclear power station
Everyone should worry about this storm due to potentially weakened levees and nuclear power stations along the Mississippi river. Any levee failures will be the fault of the Trump Administration/MRC, and perhaps Trump himself, as surely as if they/he had blown up the levee, because they/he refused to open the Morganza Spillway. The final say for opening the Morganza lies with Trump appointee and head of the MRC (Mississippi River Commission) Richard Kaiser.
Waterford Nuclear Power Station and Storm surge watch. Waterford is protected by a levee — a levee which may have been weakened by Trump-MRC-Richard Kaiser’s failure to open the Morganza spillway and by the extra water flow going to the Bonnet Carre, which faces Waterford NPS. The Mississippi River wants to go toward the Atchafalaya, which means through the Waterford nuclear power station. That’s the purpose of the river control structure, upriver from the power station – to control the river and ease it over to the Atchafalaya.
Purple is storm surge watch.
This post explains some reasons that people outside of Louisiana should care. The ports are another reason: https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2019/07/10/tropical-cyclone-menaces-us-gulf-coast-mississippi-river-levees-at-risk/
The orange skulls are nuclear power stations/facilities.
Purple is storm surge watch. About the cone of uncertainly: https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2019/06/01/explaining-the-national-hurricane-center-cone-of-uncertainty/
The Morganza spillway should have been opened. The Mississippi River was more than high enough to require opening, but they cheated on the flow rate by opening the Bonnet Carre spillway. The fresh water entering the Mississippi Sound/Gulf of Mexico due to this policy killed dolphins; impacted seafood. At least one person drowned in Baton Rouge due to flooding, and the levees are at risk due to stress – stress that the Morganza was designed to relieve.
It currently appears that the Atchafalaya Basin/Spillway will be badly hit (with flooding) anyway, by this storm. Trump apparently was protecting someone in the Atchafalaya, who will be hit anyway. That is small comfort. The inhabitants of the Atchafalaya have known that they are in a spillway for almost 70 years.
Almost no mention was made in the media that failing to open the Morganza not only stressed the levees, but put a lot of other land under water, including farmland, and including farmland of the Louisiana State Prison (Angola). The media mostly blindly repeated the whines of large Atchafalaya Basin farmers. At least the Mississippi AG has filed suit over the refusal to open the Morganza, because of the impacts that it has had in Mississippi. Over two years after the beginning of the Trump fiasco, the only small comfort is the future where Trump, his buddies, and his Congressional enablers – first and foremost Pelosi, will be rotting in hell.
New Orleans River gage. See links to additional gages found at bottom of this post: https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2019/07/10/tropical-cyclone-menaces-us-gulf-coast-mississippi-river-levees-at-risk/
About the storm surge graphic: “Storm surge is rising water moving inland from the shoreline, pushed onshore by the force of the wind. This storm surge watch/warning graphic identifies locations most at risk for life-threatening inundation from storm surge, displaying areas that qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning by the National Weather Service. Due to forecast uncertainty, the actual areas that experience life-threatening inundation may differ from the areas shown on this map. All persons, regardless of whether or not they are in the highlighted areas shown by the graphic, should promptly follow evacuation orders and other instructions from local emergency management officials.” https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/203739.shtml?wsurge#contents
WTNT32 KNHC 102036
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
…HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST…
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 255 MI…410 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended westward to Intracoastal
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi
River westward to Cameron Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the broad disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.1 North, longitude 87.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwestward
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected
to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft and surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City…3 to 6 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.
Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/102036.shtml