Tags
Angola, Atchafalaya basin, Baton Rouge, Big Easy, Big One, Bonnet Carre Spillway, Bribery, chaos, corruption, crime, Gulf of Mexico, Housing, immigration, insouciance, jazz, Katrina, Lake Ponchartrain, levee, levee failure, levees, Louisiana State Prison Angola, mafia, Mississippi River, Mississippi River Commission, Mississippi Sound, Morganza, Morganza spillway, MRC, New Orleans, nuclear disaster, overpopulation, Pelosi, Planning, risk management, Southeast Louisiana, Trump, Trump Administration, Waterford nuclear power station
Everyone should worry about these storms due to potentially weakened levees and nuclear power stations along the Mississippi river. Love or hate New Orleans, another Katrina-like flooding event in New Orleans will be bad, and may have largely the same impact on the United States as before. While the superficial beauty of New Orleans and its music is legendary, there is an ugly underbelly to it. Thus, another disaster may spread around the country: more drug dealers and crime; more bad drivers; more people with no concept of planning or time (i.e. chaos); more clerks who are jerks; more mafia, corruption and bribery (if that is possible). A local university, which we won’t name, choosing to hire a jazz expert, rather than the environmental/risk management expert for which they advertised, is probably all that you need to know about the “Big Easy“, as well as the chaos which reigned post-Katrina. Just as California awaits its “Big One“, New Orleans has long expected its “Big One“, it has simply failed to prepare for it.
In short, the “Big Easy” cultural devil-may-care attitude could spread further about, even if a nuclear accident does not. This, or any other major disaster, in conjunction with the US immigration policy of approximately one million new American citizens per year, will lead to further increases in housing costs, and deforestation due to increase in housing cost and demand.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143913.shtml?key_messages#contents
Any levee failures will be the fault of the Trump Administration, and perhaps Trump himself, as surely as if they/he had blown up the levee, because they/he refused to open the Morganza Spillway. It should have been opened. The Mississippi River was more than high enough to require opening, but they cheated on the flow rate by opening the Bonnet Carre spillway. The fresh water entering the Mississippi Sound/Gulf of Mexico due to this policy killed dolphins; impacted seafood. At least one person drowned in Baton Rouge due to flooding, and the levees are at risk due to stress – stress that the Morganza was designed to relieve.
It currently appears that the Atchafalaya Basin/Spillway will be badly hit (with flooding) anyway, by this storm. Trump apparently was protecting someone in the Atchafalaya, who will be hit anyway. That is small comfort. The inhabitants of the Atchafalaya have known that they are in a spillway for almost 70 years.
Almost no mention was made in the media that failing to open the Morganza not only stressed the levees, but put a lot of other land under water, including farmland, and including the farmland of the Louisiana State Prison (Angola). The people to be most pitied in this story are the prisoners at Angola. The media mostly blindly repeated the whines of large Atchafalya Basin farmers. At least the Mississippi AG has filed suit over the refusal to open the Morganza, because of the impacts that it had in Mississippi. Over two years after the beginning of the Trump fiasco, the only small comfort is the future where Trump, his buddies, and his Congressional enablers – first and foremost Nancy Pelosi, will be rotting in hell.
New Orleans River gage. See links to additional gages further below.
“000
WTNT32 KNHC 101731
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
…TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO…
…HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA…
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.3N 86.7W
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation…from rising water moving inland from the
coastline…in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk…please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic…available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area…generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be
issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.3 North, longitude 86.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest motion
is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City…3 to 5 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.
Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday or early Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/101437.shtml?
“693
WTNT32 KNHC 101437
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
…TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.5N 86.4W
ABOUT 170 MI…270 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl
River to Morgan City, Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be
issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn
toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…near 100 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City…3 to 5 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday or early Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/101437.shtml
About Storm Surge map:
“This map should only be used as a general guideline for understanding where storm surge flooding could occur given the current forecast situation. Regardless of what this map shows, always follow evacuation and other instructions from your local emergency management officials.
This map depicts the potential flooding that could be produced from storm surge during a tropical or post-tropical cyclone. Storm surge is water from the ocean that is pushed onshore by the force of the winds. Flooding from storm surge depends on many factors, such as the track, intensity, size, and forward speed of the tropical cyclone and the characteristics of the coastline where it comes ashore or passes nearby. These factors are difficult to predict far in advance of a tropical or post-tropical cyclone affecting a particular area. This map uses the best information available at the time it is issued, including uncertainties in the track, intensity, and size forecast. It includes many assumptions and has limitations, and it cannot tell you what amount of flooding will definitely occur at any given location. Conditions and the forecast can change and will be reflected on this map with each new full NHC advisory (but not special advisories). The actual areas that could become flooded may differ from the areas shown on this map. This map accounts for tides, but not waves and not flooding caused by rainfall.”
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143913.shtml?inundation#contents
The opinions expressed in this post reflect the opinion of the editor-blog operator, and may not represent the opinion of the blog “owner”, who apparently thrives on chaos.
Mining Awareness + 
You must be logged in to post a comment.