1918 flu, 1918 flu pandemic, Coronavirus, Coronavirus testing, COVID-19, epidemic disease, Hand-washing, hospital capacity, hospitalization rates Italy, hygiene, influenza, Italy, Lombardy, pandemic, pest, plumbing, quarantine, Running water, SARS, SARS-CoV-2, Vò Italy, Veneto
Italy was slow to take action. As a result, many have died, and will die, unnecessarily. But, Italy has taken action, and fewer should die from Coronavirus-Covid-19, than otherwise would be the case. https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2020/03/19/rapid-response-was-crucial-to-containing-the-1918-flu-pandemic-slow-response-resulted-in-more-deaths/
Nonetheless, the Covid-19 infection rates, hospitalization rates, and death rates continue to rise in Italy. While testing has increased, those testing positive have also increased.
Italy needs to serve as a warning/wakeup call of things to come in other countries. Coronavirus arrived in Italy on January 31st, and the first cluster was identified in Lombardy on February 21st – less than a month ago.
The mortality (death) rate from Coronavirus, Covid-19, was 11% as of yesterday, March 18th, for the Lombardy region. The estimate for the worldwide mortality rate from the 1918 flu is around 10%.
Since March 14th, testing in Lombardy has increased by over 30%, but cases have increased by over 50%. 67% of Covid-19 victims (cases) in Lombardy are hospitalized (intensive and non-intensive care). 7.5% are in intensive care. If half of those in intensive care die, then Lombardy will have a Covid-19 mortality rate of around 14%.
If half of those in intensive care die in Italy, then they will soon be facing a 12% – or greater- Covid-19 mortality rate. Overall 57% of Italians with Covid-19 are hospitalized (intensive and non-intensive care). 7.8% are in intensive care.
The small town of Vò, in the Veneto region of Italy, used a combination of testing and quarantine to stop Coronavirus Covid-19. They tested everyone: “Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted Covid-19 there A study in Vò, which saw Italy’s first death, points to the danger of asymptomatic carriers” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19
Hopefully, with quarantine measures and more widespread indoor plumbing throughout the world, which facilitates basic hygiene, 27% of the population won’t get Coronavirus-Covid-19, as was the case in the 1918 flu pandemic. Furthermore, during 1918, much of the world was engaged in trench warfare in Europe. However, the population is far greater and crowding worse. The United States doesn’t appear to have built hospital beds to keep up with its massive immigration of the last decades. A look at the map of potential hospital bed shortages suggests that low immigration regions will not have as great a shortage. Additionally, the US, and most other countries, have failed to take prompt measures.
50 million dead/500 million infected by the 1918 flu is a 10% mortality rate. They believe that 27% were infected. However, the 1918 flu was in several waves over the course of a year. Not only was there a war with a lot of trench warfare, but indoor water/plumbing was not prevalent for the general public, so basic hygiene would have been more difficult. All of my grandparents survived the 1918 flu pandemic in the United States, and all of my still living great-grandparents apparently did, as well. At least one grandparent got the flu. On the other hand, Trump’s grandfather got sick in the morning and was dead by the afternoon. Just because you don’t know anyone who died, doesn’t mean it wasn’t a serious thing! The same is true of Coronavirus-Covid-19.
1918 flu: “500 million people were estimated to have been infected by the 1918 H1N1 flu virus. At least 50 million people were killed around the world including an estimated 675,000 Americans” https://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2018/05/1918-flu. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
“In 1918, a new influenza virus emerged. During this same time period World War I was taking place. The conditions of World War I (overcrowding and global troop movement) helped the 1918 flu spread. The vulnerability of healthy young adults and the lack of vaccines and treatments created a major public health crisis, causing at least 50 million deaths worldwide, including approximately 675,000 in the United States. Below is a historical timeline of major events that took place during this time period.” https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/pandemic-timeline-1918.htm