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Belarus, European Security, German Chancellor Scholz, Germany, interview, Kiev, Poland, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Putin, Russian attack on Kiev, Russian offensive, Scholz, tanks, Ukraine
Russia is closer to the USA than it is to Poland:
Paul Ronzheimer of BILD [Germany] met the Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in Warsaw for an interview (2 Feb. 2023) [Morawiecki speaks in English but it’s translated to German]: https://youtu.be/EAGnc-OSh0c
Excerpt regarding Putin’s war plan:
“I think it’s the plan of Putin and his people like Valery Gerasimov, his new commander in chief of the Russian army, to encircle Ukraine. And in preparing all these plans, he probably feels he needs to attack from two or three different directions. Therefore, I think that the Ukrainians cannot rule out an attack from the Belarusian northern part of Ukraine to encircle Kyiv from the west.”
Regarding the possibility of a new Russian attack on the Ukrainian capital (Kiev):
“The winter is quite mild at the moment, which means that the ground is not suitable for heavy tanks, for tanks and artillery. So Putin will probably want to wait for all the mud and swamps and not-so-well-prepared ground to dry up for the offensive….
“According to all the information I have from Ukraine, I know that there will be another Russian offensive, probably in March or April, and it will be a very tough offensive…
I think that unfortunately he is not only full of hatred for Ukraine, but also wants to show his people once again that he is a long-term player who never gives up and he will attack Kyiv again, yes I have these Apprehension.”
Regarding Putin’s army:
“He called up and mobilized many new soldiers, about 200,000 to 250,000 new soldiers…
We must not forget that Russia’s resources are really big, and it has deep pockets. He has a lot of ammo, a lot of guns and a lot of people.”
Regarding Leopard 2 tank deliveries:
“Poland has already delivered 250 other main battle tanks, and 60 more are planned. “To top off this pyramid, we will be donating 14 Leopard tanks along with our other allies.”
Scholz’ Russia error:
“A lot is being thought about the German strategy. Especially about the strategy of the past, how wrong it was to put all your eggs in the Russian basket and make the whole strategy dependent on Russian gas and Russian raw materials. Now many people would have expected a change from Germany, a complete change. But we see that Germany is trying to be half pregnant, to rethink a bit and to support Ukraine. But at the same time, they – I mean the government and the chancellor in particular – still seem to believe that we should get back to business as usual with Russia. I don’t think that will ever be possible with this quasi-totalitarian regime. Russia would have to change completely.”
On Germany’s responsibility:
“Germany has the potential to provide much more support than it has done so far, it has decision-making power within the European Union, it has money for Ukraine, it has diplomatic power…”
Poland’s distrust of Germany:
“I would say that a year ago there was a lot of trust in Germany from many other countries. And now that pendulum has swung in the direction of distrust. Especially within the family of Central and Eastern European countries and also the members of the European Union.”
On the delivery of fighter jets:
“If this were a NATO-wide decision, I would be in favor of deploying these fighter jets. (…) It has to be a NATO decision, and not just Poland, but many other countries have to take part in it.”
On the aim of the Russian war on Ukraine:
“Our goal is to support Ukraine so that Ukraine wins this war. Which means it preserves its sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity. This is crucial, and I also see this war as a turning point in our history. Because God forbid that Russia wins this war, that would mean a completely different landscape in Europe…
The definition of victory must lie with Kyiv, with President Zelenskyy and his government and the Ukrainian people, so I will not comment on that very specifically, because it depends on them.”
On talking to Putin:
“I think it’s wrong because it only gives Putin oxygen and does nothing. Putin actually achieves his goals with such talks, because he shows the rest of the world and his own people: Look, I’m in high demand, everyone wants to talk to me, everything depends on me. That is the message that Putin relays after such talks.”
On Europe if Putin wins:
“I think the world would look completely different and it would mean a constant threat to Finland, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Moldova and also Germany. They (Russia) would blackmail us: “Buy our gas, or if you don’t buy our gas, we will take over the other country, we will attack other countries.” This is a crucial moment, a crucial one Period, and we must do everything we can to counter such scenarios.”
On Putin’s fall
“Of course I think Putin is a very bad, very bad person, but I also think that’s not the only condition, because there could be another Putin and an even worse Putin, so it’s not the only factor.”
On Russia’s nuclear threats:
“Russia’s main weapon is fear, our main weapon should and must be solidarity. Yes, there are threats and there will be threats coming from Russia because the Kremlin wants to threaten and paralyze us all.”
See German original here and audio at link. The above text is based upon a translation of the German. The English in the video is mostly dubbed over: https://web.archive.org/web/20230202102925/https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/polen-premier-morawiecki-warnt-putin-wird-kiew-wieder-angreifen-82760178.bild.html?t_ref=https%3A%2F%2Fm.bild.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2Fpolitik-ausland%2Fpolen-premier-morawiecki-warnt-putin-wird-kiew-wieder-angreifen-82760178.bildMobile.html
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