African American voters, African Americans, Bernie Sanders, Biden, Clyburn, Cory Booker, Dearborn Michigan, Democratic Primary, Idaho, Joe Biden, Michigan, Michigan Muslim, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, Washington
Politics is still not twitter. Politics still happens at the grassroots in communities, and is about the human touch. This is what pundits missed. And, Bernie Sanders is not a Democrat because he hasn’t paid in his literal party dues ($) through the years, nor has he paid in his metaphorical dues. It’s like if someone goes to church a few times, and then shows up and expects to be elected Pope and criticizes the church if they aren’t.
From VOA News:
“Michigan Top Prize as Six States Hold Democratic Nominating Contests
By VOA News
March 10, 2020 03:36 AM
Voters in six U.S. states cast ballots Tuesday in the race for who will be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. The focus will be on the key Midwestern state of Michigan, where polls show former Vice President Joe Biden leading Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
Michigan is the biggest prize in Tuesday’s voting with 125 delegates at stake.
Sanders won Michigan’s 2016 primary, but numerous polls in recent days show him trailing Biden by a double-digit margin.
Elections are also being held in Washington, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and North Dakota.
The contests are the first since last week’s Super Tuesday batch of states when the selection process transformed from smaller states holding votes one at a time to multiple states spread across the country voting at the same time.
Sanders won California, the biggest state, but it was Biden who emerged as the front-runner by winning 10 of the 14 states last week.
“You know, just over a week ago, the press and the pundits had declared his campaign dead. Then South Carolina spoke. Then Super Tuesday spoke and the turnout was incredible,” Biden told a crowd Monday in Detroit. “And now tomorrow, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Idaho, Washington State you will be heard. And Michigan, I’m counting on you in a big way.”
Biden entered Tuesday leading with 670 pledged delegates so far, ahead of Sanders and his 574 delegates, according to Associated Press estimates.
Sanders says his progressive campaign is what the country needs more than the moderate positions of Biden, and that he is the best challenger for Trump in the November national election.
“My point here is to ask you to think that in a general election, which candidate can generate the enthusiasm and excitement and the voter turnout we need? So if, if you want to defeat Trump, which all Democrats do, and a majority of independents and some Republicans do, we are that campaign,” Sanders told his supporters in Missouri.
A candidate needs 1,991 delegates to secure the nomination, which will not be officially decided until Democrats hold their national convention in July.
Biden and Sanders are scheduled to debate each other next Sunday ahead March 17 elections in Florida, Illinois and Ohio.” https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-politics/michigan-top-prize-six-states-hold-democratic-nominating-contests
It shouldn’t be surprising that Bernie Sanders is popular with Muslims in Dearborn. Sanders’ campaign manager is Muslim, Faiz Shakir, whose parents immigrated from Pakistan. We are unable to find why or how or their names.
From VOA News:
“Michigan Primary Look Ahead
By Katherine Gypson
March 09, 2020 05:28 PM
WASHINGTON – In 2016, Michigan gave Sen. Bernie Sanders one of the most surprising primary wins in U.S. political history.
In 2020, the self-described democratic socialist will need another boost from Michigan to revive his campaign to secure the Democratic presidential nomination over his lone remaining major rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.
With 125 delegates, Michigan is the biggest prize up for grabs among the six states holding primaries Tuesday. Sanders signaled the importance of Michigan to his campaign, abandoning a planned rally in Mississippi to hold five campaign events in the state over the weekend, including one in Dearborn, where the nation’s largest Muslim community strongly supports him.
Dearborn was one of the areas that helped Sanders secure his 2016 victory in the Michigan primary over eventual Democratic party nominee Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin of 49.8% to 48.3%. After trailing Clinton significantly in the polls, Sanders won by just 17,000 votes.
Sanders aims to improve on that narrow margin of victory in 2020, even though in some states to date, he has struggled to turn out voters in the same numbers he did in 2016. A Detroit Free Press poll released Monday does not look promising for him.
The survey of 400 Michigan voters shows Biden outpacing Sanders by a significant margin — 51% to 27%.
“If Bernie doesn’t score a big victory in Michigan, you’re really starting to see the end of the possibility of his candidacy,” said Jim Kessler, a senior vice president at public policy think tank Third Way, and former legislative director for then-Congressman Charles Schumer.
Here are four things to watch politically in Michigan on Tuesday:
In 2016, Hillary Clinton won delegates in the more populous areas of Detroit, but Sanders pulled off his win by securing big upsets in rural counties, appealing to a core constituency of white working-class voters. Analysts say Sanders’s win in 2016 was due in large part to Clinton’s weakness with what has traditionally been a core constituency of the Democratic Party.
“The dynamics are very, very different from four years ago when Sanders and Clinton were more neck and neck at this point in the process,” said Dave Dulio, a professor of political science at Oakland University in Rochester, Michigan.
Biden is rolling into Michigan on a wave of Super Tuesday momentum, with proof from the South Carolina primary that he can mobilize the African American vote — a key constituency in Michigan — as well as bring new voters to the polls, as evidenced by record turnout in key swing states such as Texas and Virginia.
“There are a couple of things there that could help Biden relative to Hillary Clinton,” Kessler said. “The place I would look to is the suburbs — there’s a lot more suburban Democratic voters in 2020 than there was in 2016. These are the people that moved from Trump. These are the people that delivered the majority to Democrats in 2018. Do they come out and vote in large numbers the way they did in Virginia and North Carolina? And if they do, that will carry Biden over.”
Michigan will also be a test of Sanders’ argument that his campaign can mobilize overlooked voters, including younger voters and voters of color.
“Young people are notoriously unreliable voters, for whatever reason,” said Vincent Hutchings, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan Ann Arbor. “If that population turns out in high numbers, that’s a good sign for Sanders.”
Hutchings also noted Sanders’ strength among Michigan’s Muslim population. He won the endorsement of Emgage, the nation’s only Muslim political action community, for directly appealing to an electorate that is often overlooked by other politicians. At the same time, Sanders’ strength in Latino communities helps little in Michigan, where that demographic makes up only a small part of the electorate.
African American vote
Sanders’ weakness with African American voters could be the blow that kills his chances in Michigan.
Democratic delegate math in Michigan is anything but straightforward. Democrats allocate their delegates according to the statewide vote and the vote by congressional districts. Because of this weighting system, winning boils down to securing large population areas such as the predominantly African American city of Detroit. Sanders failed to win the city in 2016, and his poor 2020 performances in southern states with African American electorates does not bode well for his chances in the Motor City.
Hutchings said African Americans make up about 15% of the Michigan electorate overall, and an even larger share of the Democratic voters controlling the results Tuesday.
“I would be very surprised, extremely surprised, if Sanders were to win the black vote in the state. And because that vote typically votes in the bloc fashion, that means that it’s going to be difficult, not impossible, but difficult. If that remains the case, it’s going to be difficult for Sanders to win,” said Hutchings.
Meanwhile, Biden heads into the primary with major endorsements from two former African American presidential candidates, senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, who were campaigning with him Monday in Detroit.
The impact of endorsements
In addition to the Harris and Booker endorsements, Biden also gained the support of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Sanders endorsed Whitmer’s progressive Democratic challenger, Abdul El-Sayed, in 2018, but campaigned for her in the general election.
Analysts differ on the impact of endorsements. Conventional political wisdom holds that endorsements usually do not dramatically alter political races. That appears to have been upended this election cycle with the boost Biden received from Congressman James Clyburn, a Democrat from South Carolina who gave the former vice president his stamp of approval just days before the do-or-die primary in his home state, which Biden won handily.
Biden had pinned his hopes on his ability to mobilize the African American vote in South Carolina after severely disappointing showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, two smaller states that do not reflect the demographic diversity of the United States.
Both Dulio and Hutchings said Whitmer’s endorsement of Biden in Michigan was significant.
“It certainly is a highly visible endorsement for the Biden campaign, and it can’t hurt him,” Hutchings said. “It probably helped him increase the (vote) margins.”
Sanders’ campaign does have a strength that is uniquely suited to Michigan: outreach to blue-collar factory workers, which has been a central point of his presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020. Nowhere is that more important than in Michigan, the center of the auto industry.
Sanders has been savaging Biden’s record on trade, citing his support for NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) on the campaign trail and in numerous advertisements airing locally, according to Dulio. He said that argument could resonate with the all-important suburban women demographic, swinging some of their votes to Sanders.
“Michigan is a unique place, because so many people are tied to the auto industry. Whether it’s in a place like Macomb County, where you’re talking about folks who work in manufacturing and do the manufacturing at Ford, GM and Chrysler plants, or part of the auto manufacturers supply chain, or if you’re talking about folks in, say, Oakland County right next door, who are part of the white-collar contingent of auto company employees,” said Dulio. If Sanders can convince those key voters their livelihoods are at stake in this election, his campaign may be able to survive past Michigan“. https://www.voanews.com/usa/michigan-primary-look-ahead
From VOA News:
“New Jersey Sen. Booker Endorses Biden
By Ken Bredemeier
Updated March 09, 2020 12:45 PM
WASHINGTON – New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker voiced support Monday for former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, his latest former challenger to endorse him just ahead of six state primary elections he faces Tuesday against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Booker, who dropped out of the party’s presidential contest in January before voting began a couple weeks later, said in a Twitter comment, “The answer to hatred & division is to reignite our spirit of common purpose. @JoeBiden won’t only win – he’ll show there’s more that unites us than divides us. He’ll restore honor to the Oval Office and tackle our most pressing challenges. That’s why I’m proud to endorse Joe.”…
Several former rivals have now endorsed Biden, a list that also includes former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. They both dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination just ahead of last week’s Super Tuesday voting, when Biden won 10 of the 14 state party nominating elections over Sanders, a self-declared democratic socialist. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who lost all 14 states to Biden and Sanders after spending more than $500 million of his own money on his campaign, also endorsed Biden last week.
A new CNN poll, taken after last week’s party primary elections, shows U.S. Democratic voters favor Biden by a wide margin over Sanders, 52% to 36%. In Michigan, the auto-manufacturing hub in the U.S. where Biden and Sanders square off in a party primary election on Tuesday, several state-wide polls show Biden with a commanding lead.
The Democratic contest is to face Republican President Donald Trump in the November national election as he seeks a second term in the White House…
Civil rights leader Jesse Jackson endorsed Sanders, saying that “with the exception of Native Americans, African Americans are the people who are most behind socially and economically in the United States and our needs are not moderate. A people far behind cannot catch up choosing the most moderate path.” “The most progressive social and economic path gives us the best chance to catch up and Sen. Bernie Sanders represents the most progressive path,” Jackson said.
Michigan has the most Democratic national convention delegates at stake in the Tuesday voting. The fivethirtyeight.com political forecasting site is predicting that Biden will win 81 of the state’s 125 pledged delegates to 44 for Sanders.
The fivethirtyeight site gives Sanders a slight edge in the western state of Washington, where 89 delegates are at stake, with Biden ahead in the Midwestern state of Missouri and the Southern state of Mississippi. Forecasters say the two candidates are virtually even in two smaller states, Idaho and North Dakota.
Just a week ago, before the Super Tuesday voting, FiveThirtyEight.com predicted that no Democratic candidate would be able to win the party nomination with a majority of delegates on the first convention ballot to face Trump.
Now, however, it predicts that Biden will cruise to victory on the first ballot, although neither Biden nor Sanders is close yet to a majority of delegates.
Sanders predicted on the “Fox News Sunday” show that he would win the Michigan vote. “Joe Biden is a friend of mine,” Sanders said. “Joe Biden is a decent guy.”…
Biden and Sanders are scheduled to debate each other next Sunday.”
See original in its entirety here: https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-politics/new-jersey-sen-booker-endorses-biden