Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located less than 700 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.
1. A small low pressure system located about 1200 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next
day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland along
the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding along portions of the central
and upper Texas coastal areas later this week. For additional
information, see products issued by your local weather forecast
office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
WTNT34 KNHC 162348
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
…HUMBERTO LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 645 MI…1040 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…966 MB…28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.3 North,
longitude 75.5 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast
near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a gradual increase
in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach
Bermuda Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane
by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late
RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning late Tuesday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night.
Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office and the Bermuda Weather Service.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
Forecaster Pasch” https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/162348.shtml