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Updates at Hurricanes.gov
Now’s a good time to make sure you have batteries-keep batteries charged;
make sure to have extra water, etc.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
Notice that the disturbance appears to be sitting above the “x” mark in the Gulf of Mexico.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located about 200 miles north of the northwestern
Bahamas.

1. A small low pressure system is producing an elongated area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic. Slow development is anticipated during the next day or
two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Stewarthttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

000
WTNT34 KNHC 152050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

…HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN…
…RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH TUESDAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.3N 78.0W
ABOUT 210 MI…335 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI…270 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB…29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars near
latitude 29.3 North, longitude 78.0 West. Humberto is moving toward
the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A sharp turn to the northeast is forecast
to occur Monday morning or afternoon, followed by a motion toward
the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away
from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the southeastern coast
of the United States through Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane later
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is estimated
to be 989 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the central and
northern Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.
Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/152050.shtml