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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, centered over the central Bahamas. This
system is gradually becoming better organized, and if this trend
continues, a tropical depression or tropical storm may develop later
this afternoon or evening as the system drifts northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

1. A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large but disorganized area
of cloudiness and showers. Conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple days, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic and approaches the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. Another tropical wave is located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while it moves westward across the
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Lattohttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

000
WTNT34 KNHC 132042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS…
…FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.6N 75.0W
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI…230 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 75.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and east of the east
coast of Florida during Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in the watch area on
the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina…2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/132042.shtml

At 2 AM: