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As of 8 am this morning, St. Lucie Nuclear Power Station is still listed as 100% power for both reactors even though they are supposed to power down for a hurricane: https://archive.li/lY5iI

St. Lucie nuclear power station claims to be resistant to these conditions, but nuclear power stations are always at risk even with power outages, especially if they don’t power down in advance. It is lucky that, for now, the nuclear power station won’t take a direct hit from a Category 5 storm. Hopefully Dorian won’t sit nearby for an extended period like it has on the Bahamas. Why would anyone take this risk in the Sunshine state of Florida and put a nuclear power station out on a barrier island? Trump’s PB club, Mar-a-Lago, is actually in the outer fallout zone for a St. Lucie nuclear accident. If Trump were even an iota as smart as he thinks he is, he would shut this nuclear power station down by executive order.

The Richelieu apartments on the Mississippi Gulf Coast were believed to be hurricane resistant, were classified as a civil defense shelter, and had survived a previous hurricane, but Hurricane Camille left only a concrete slab foundation. There were buildings which had survived many hurricanes which were washed away by Camille. There were houses that survived Camille and were destroyed or washed away by Hurricane Katrina. Barrier islands have been split in two both near St. Lucie, and in the Gulf during Camille. Why take that chance?

Remember how their power lines are just sitting out there:

Hurricane Dorian Wind forecast:

Hurricane Dorian Wind:
Potential Impacts Include:
* Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
* Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
* Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
* Large areas with power and communications outages.

Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Forecast:

Potential Impacts Include:
* Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
* Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
* Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
* Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Hurricane Dorian Localized Flooding Forecast:

Potential Impacts Include:
* Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
* Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
* Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures.

Hurricane Dorian Tornado Threat:
Potential Impacts Include:
* The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
* A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.
* Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mlb#hti

https://www.weather.gov/mlb/

For residents: “St. Lucie county has issued a mandatory evacuation order for residents on the barrier island (North and South Hutchinson Island), those living in low-lying coastal areas and mobile homes. That order will begin at 2 p.m. Sunday (9/1/2019)“. https://www.floridadisaster.org/info/

Weather for Port Lucie, which isn’t directly on the coast. St. Lucie Nuclear Power Station is on the coast:
NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-FL125D0F9B40C8.HurricaneWarning.125D0F9C73D0FL.MLBTCVMLB.f389c35995b8f010bae4e0ffc894ab24from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.govSent:05:14 EDT on 09-03-2019
Effective:05:14 EDT on 09-03-2019 Expires:13:00 EDT on 09-03-2019Event:Hurricane WarningAlert:…
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT… …STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT… * LOCATIONS AFFECTED – Port Saint Lucie – Fort Pierce * WIND – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind – Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph – Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Wednesday morning – POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 74 to 110 mph – The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. – PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or 2 hurricane force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. – PREPARE: Last minute efforts should solely focus on protecting life. The area remains subject to considerable wind damage. – ACT: Now is the time to shelter from life-threatening wind. – POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding – Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding. * STORM SURGE – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible – Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas – Window of concern: through early Thursday evening – POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground – The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. – PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 6 feet above ground. – PREPARE: All ordered evacuations should be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from storm surge flooding. – ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture outside. Move to upper floors to escape rising water if necessary. – POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding – Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding. * FLOODING RAIN – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: – Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-5 inches, with locally higher amounts totaling 10 inches. – POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain – The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. – PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. – PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. – ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. – POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited – Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations. – Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots. – Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO – LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: – Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes – POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few tornadoes – The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. – PLAN: Emergency plans should continue to include possible tornadoes. – PREPARE: Stay within your shelter keeping informed of the latest tornado situation. – ACT: Move quickly to the safest place within your shelter if a tornado warning is issued. – POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited – The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. – A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. – Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: – Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency – https://www.ready.gov – Local weather conditions and forecasts – http://www.weather.gov/mlb

https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=FL125D0F8CEA14.HurricaneWarning.125D0F9B4708FL.MLBTCVMLB.f389c35995b8f010bae4e0ffc894ab24

St. Lucie is in the Hurricane and Storm Surge Warning zones. Lucky that it isn’t for Category 5, considering the nuclear power station sitting out there.
WTNT35 KNHC 031150
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

…EYE OF DORIAN BEGINNING TO INCH NORTHWESTWARD…
…SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.1N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…70 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH…2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound GA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.1
North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is beginning to move
northwestward at about 1 mph (2 km/h), and a slightly faster motion
toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected later today and
tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening,
followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening.
The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east
coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or
over the North Carolina coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
160 miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 952 mb (28.11 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River SC…4 to 7 ft
Lantana FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line…3 to 5 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL…2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas…Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia…3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/031150.shtml