Tags

, , , , , , , , , , ,


STORM SURGE : A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves
.”

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020257
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

…CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…26.6N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI…220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…180 MPH…285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…914 MB…26.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s
River.

A Storm Surge Watch has also been extended northward from the
Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the
core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound
Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands overnight and through much of
Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations
in intensity could occur couple of days. Regardless, Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb (26.99 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue in the Abacos
and Grand Bahama Islands. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds
will suddenly increase as the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River…4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana FL…2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas…12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia…3 to
6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeastern Virginia…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Central Bahamas…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/020257.shtml?

Note that Dorian has shift from 270 degrees to 275 degrees. 270 is due west, as seen below.