Tags

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Predicted Track mapped with Nuclear Power Stations (Skulls) after satellite pictures and St. Lucie NPS image. Forecast further below.

Hurricane Dorian at 7.21 AM EDT, Sept 2, 2019

Hurricane Dorian at 8.51 AM EDT, Sept 2, 2019

St. Lucie Nuclear Power Station. Yes, it’s really sitting out there on the Atlantic on a barrier island. Hurricane Camille split Ship Island in two. Something similar happened not far from St. Lucie NPS: “In 1962, a severe storm caused a breakthrough in the barrier island (Jupiter Island) at Peck Lake, about 3.7 miles south of St. Lucie Inlethttps://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CZIC-ht393-f6-f6-1982/html/CZIC-ht393-f6-f6-1982.htm

Hurricane Dorian 8 AM EDT Forecast map with Nuclear Power Station
Hurricane Dorian (AL052019)
Advisory #36A
Advisory Information
Valid at: 8:00 AM EDT September 02, 2019
Location: 26.7 N, -78.2 W
Maximum Wind: 145 knots (165 mph)
Wind Gusts: 175 knots (200 mph)
Motion: W
Minimum Pressure: 916 mb

It’s unclear if the 194 is gusts or sustained winds. Luckily whether this is gusts or sustained apparently won’t be put to the test, this time. “From the St. Lucie 2 UFSAR, the once every 100 years extreme wind for the site is 120 mph, and Class I buildings are designed to withstand 300-mph tornado winds and a design hurricane wind speed of 194 mph. Also, from the St. Lucie UFSAR, reinforced concrete flood walls have been provided around structures in the plant to an elevation of +22 feet mean low water level ocean. The maximum calculated wave runup coincident with the maximum peak surge level is below the plant grade elevation of +18.5 feet and below the minimum elevation of +19.5 feet of any building openings. As previously stated, Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne impacted operation of the St. Lucie site, with winds of 105 mph and 120 mph, respectively, at landfall.http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML0533/ML053340263.pdf

See impacts of Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne at blog post bottom, including a nearby seawall failure.

Power lines leading to St. Lucie nuclear power station. Weirdly, nuclear power stations require offsite power and if these power lines fail, then backup generators are required. Sometimes they don’t start.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021224 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 36A…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 022019

Corrected rainfall statement

…EYE OF CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING LITTLE WHILE OVER GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 35 MI…50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…165 MPH…270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH…2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…916 MB…27.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
watches may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by
NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 78.2 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the
Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River…4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana…2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas…12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas…Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia…4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/021224.shtml

Slosh model surge: https://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/