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This is the 4 pm CDT update. Future updates at hurricane.gov. Unless you are in an area where you know you need to evacuate, this is the wait and see period of the tropical storm/hurricane.

Everyone should worry about this storm due to potentially weakened levees in conjunction with nuclear power stations AND petrochemical facilities along the Mississippi river (aka “Cancer Alley”). It is worthwhile to pray for the levee, at this point, regardless of your religious beliefs (or non-beliefs). Any levee failures will be the fault of Trump Appointee-Mississippi River Commission head, and perhaps Trump himself, as surely as if they/he had blown up the levee(s), because they/he refused to open the Morganza Spillway. The final say for opening the Morganza lies with Trump’s head of the MRC: Richard Kaiser.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/210142.shtml?key_messages#contents
Shell Beach Louisiana is located due south of Slidell, Louisiana.

Waterford Nuclear Power Station is protected by a levee — a levee which may have been weakened by Trump-MRC head Richard Kaiser’s failure to open the Morganza spillway, along with the extra water flow sent to the Bonnet Carre, which faces Waterford NPS. Thus, Waterford NPS also faces Lake Ponchartrain. Is the Bonnet Carre still open? It was still open as of July 8th. What impacts would storm surge on Lake Ponchartrain have upon an open Bonnet Carre and the Mississippi River?

The Mississippi River wants to go toward the Atchafalaya River-Basin, which essentially means through the Waterford Nuclear Power station. That’s the purpose of the river control structure, upriver from the power station – to control the river and ease it over to the Atchafalaya, when needed. While Waterford NPS is supposed to be somewhat “waterproof”, the nuclear waste and some other things are not. Furthermore, we are skeptical that this would be enough in the event of levee failure, since the nuclear power station lies in the path that the Mighty Mississippi River naturally wants to go.

Waterford Nuclear Power Station and Storm surge watch.

Purple is storm surge watch; Pink is storm surge warning.

Waterford sitting behind the levee, appears below river level.

This post explains some reasons that people outside of Louisiana should care. The ports are another reason: https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2019/07/10/tropical-cyclone-menaces-us-gulf-coast-mississippi-river-levees-at-risk/

“Storm surge is rising water moving inland from the shoreline, pushed onshore by the force of the wind. This storm surge watch/warning graphic identifies locations most at risk for life-threatening inundation from storm surge, displaying areas that qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning by the National Weather Service. Due to forecast uncertainty, the actual areas that experience life-threatening inundation may differ from the areas shown on this map. All persons, regardless of whether or not they are in the highlighted areas shown by the graphic, should promptly follow evacuation orders and other instructions from local emergency management officials.” https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/210142.shtml?wsurge#contents

The Morganza spillway should have been opened. The Mississippi River was more than high enough to require opening, but they cheated on the flow rate by opening the Bonnet Carre spillway. The fresh water entering the Mississippi Sound/Gulf of Mexico due to this policy killed dolphins; impacted seafood. At least one person drowned in Baton Rouge due to flooding, and the levees are at risk due to stress – stress that the Morganza was designed to relieve. It currently appears that the Atchafalaya Basin/Spillway will be badly hit (with flooding) anyway, by this storm. Trump apparently was protecting someone in the Atchafalaya, who will be hit anyway. That is small comfort. The inhabitants of the Atchafalaya have known that they are in a spillway for almost 70 years.

Almost no mention was made in the media that failing to open the Morganza not only stressed the levees, but put a lot of other land under water, including farmland, and including farmland of the Louisiana State Prison (Angola).

The media mostly blindly repeated the whines of large Atchafalaya Basin farmers, while ignoring flooding which occurred because the Morganza was not opened. The Mississippi AG has filed suit over the refusal to open the Morganza, because of the impacts that it has had in Mississippi.

“606
WTNT32 KNHC 112056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

…HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST…
…DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.8N 89.3W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Louisiana
from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.3 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the
central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday,
and then move inland into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry
could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the
center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An oil rig east of the Mouth of the Mississippi
River recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph and a wind gust
of 52 mph at an elevation of 525 feet.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach…3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border…2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River…2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Over the remainder of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting late tonight, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday late morning through
Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi,
and the Alabama coast.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven“https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/112056.shtml?