Appalachians, California, drought, fire threat, flooding, freezing rain, Mid-Atlantic, Mississippi Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, snow, Southeast, Southern California, Storm, Tennessee Valley, weather, winter weather
“Dangerous Fire Weather Threat Continues in Southern California; Winter Weather from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic
Critical fire weather conditions continue for portions of Southern California. Conditions should improve somewhat by Thursday, and at least an elevated fire weather threat is expected to continue. A storm system is expected to bring heavy rain with a river/flash flooding threat to the Southeast, and accumulating snow and ice from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the interior Mid-Atlantic“. https://www.weather.gov
“Geographic Boundaries –
Map 1: Color https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/bndrys1.gif
Map 2: Color https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/bndrys2.gif
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 14 2018 – 12Z Fri Nov 16 2018
…Freezing rain and snow are likely from the Lower/Middle Mississippi
Valley eastward to the Southern Appalachians and northward to the
…Heavy rain across the Southeast on Wednesday…
…Another day of dangerous fire weather for Southern California…
A deep upper-level low will move northeastward from the Southern Plains
into the Central Appalachians over the next couple of days. As it does so,
a surface low is expected to develop in the Tennessee Valley, with another
surface low pressure system strengthening and moving along the Eastern
Seaboard. Wintry precipitation will begin on Wednesday across parts of the
Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, spreading east and north to the Ohio
Valley, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Both snow and freezing
rain are possible with this system. The heaviest snow on Wednesday is
forecast for parts of the lower Ohio Valley under the upper-level low,
with 4 to 8 inches of snow currently expected in southern Illinois. More
heavy snow is likely for interior portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast by Thursday as the Eastern Seaboard surface low strengthens.
4 to 8 inches of snow is forecast there as well, with locally higher
amounts. Cities along the I-95 corridor are not expected to receive too
much snow. In terms of freezing rain, over a quarter of an inch of
accumulated ice is likely, mainly in the Southern to Central Appalachians.
Lighter amounts of freezing rain could be seen across much of the Ohio
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Farther south, heavy rain will be a threat across the Southeast on
Wednesday as moisture streams in ahead of the upper-level low. Generally 1
to 2 inches of rain is expected across parts of the Southeast, and a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding is in effect for parts of
Georgia and the Carolinas. On Thursday as the surface low moves north,
heavy rain is possible across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region, where it
will not be cold enough for winter precipitation.
Southern California will once again have a Critical Risk of fire weather
on Wednesday, especially in the higher terrain, according to the Storm
Prediction Center. Winds will be particularly strong in the morning, with
very low relative humidity and extremely dry ground from ongoing drought.
Winds are expected to weaken by Wednesday evening, somewhat lessening the
fire weather concerns.