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Beryl remnants over Puerto Rico.
VOA reported Sunday night: “Forecasters predicted that even though the storm is losing strength, it could bring significant rain to the islands still trying to recover from the devastating 2017 hurricane season. Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rossello warned of more power outages as the storm passes over the island Monday. More than 1,500 homes are without power nine months after Hurricane Maria made landfall. He also urged the thousands without sturdy roofs to move in with relatives or into government shelters.
NHC said Beryl was packing winds of up to 75 kilometers per hour late Sunday
.” “One Storm May Gain Strength as Another Weakens in Atlantic“, July 08, 2018 10:37 PM, VOA News https://www.voanews.com/a/one-storm-may-gain-strength-as-another-weakens-in-atlantic/4474491.html
ABC news reported Monday night: “Power outages, flooding hits Puerto Rico, USVI amid storms” By Danica Coto, AP, Humacao, Puerto Rico, July 9, 2018 6:19 pm ET. 



Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris

FXCA62 TJSJ 092037
AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
437 PM AST Mon Jul 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS…
The remnants of Beryl is causing showers and thunderstorms across
most of Puerto Rico today. Rainfall amounts have ranged from one
to 3 inches across the northeastern and southeastern portions of
the islands. This activity will continue to move to the west with
additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches expected during
the overnight. Weather conditions will improve on Tuesday as the
trough that produced the showers and thunderstorms moves away from
the region. Dry saharan air will filter in from the east on
Tuesday and dry the area out, therefore fair weather is expected
to prevail through Thursday. Surface ride of high pressure will
promote fresh easterly winds of 10 to 15 mph across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the weekend.

SHORT TERM…Today through Wednesday…
The remnants of Beryl which degenerated to an open trough on
Sunday is causing showers and thunderstorms across the U.S. Virgin
this morning. This activity has now moved over the northeastern,
southeast and central portions of Puerto Rico this afternoon. The
deep convection of Beryl is being enhanced by the trough to the
west and the ridge of high pressure to the east which is creating
a divergent pattern aloft. Currently one to three inches has
fallen over the northern and southern portions of Puerto Rico and
an additional one to two inches is expected by 10 pm tonight.
Thus, a flash flood warning is in effect for northeastern and
southeastern portions of Puerto Rico for the next several hours.

GOES-16 Satellite imagery depicts the leading edge of the trough
currently extends from 20.8N 16.42 N, which is across the
interior of Puerto Rico. Therefore expect showers and
thunderstorms to continue to move to the west and affect portions
of northwestern and southwestern Puerto Rico now until the evening
with rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to 4 inches. As a result of
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall urban flooding and rapid rises
along rivers and small streams, as well as mudslides in steep
terrain will be possible across most of the island today. Winds
across the area will range from 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts
likely.

Weather conditions will begin to improve on Tuesday as dry Saharan
air works in from the east and reigns over the region through
Wednesday. A fair weather pattern is expected to prevail with
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s in lower elevations and
the middle to upper 70s in higher elevations.

LONG TERM…Thursday through Wednesday
A TUTT low will remain to the northeast of the region and allow
for a fair weather pattern to prevail across most of the islands.
Analysis of the relative humidity at 1000 mb to 850 mb, 500 mb to
700 mb, 700 mb to 250 mb shows the low levels of the atmosphere
will remain moist with RH values ranging from 60 to 80 percent. At
the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere the RH values will
range from 20 to 30 percents this lack of mid to upper level
moisture and upper level trigger to develop showers will make the
probability for showers and thunderstorms low. Thursday moisture
returns to the region and increase the likelihood for showers.

&&

.AVIATION…SHRA/TSRA expected across most TAF sites through at
least 10/0100. MVFR ceilings and occasionally MVFR visibilities are
expected to continue during the day. Winds associated with the
disturbance will be 10-20 kts with gusts around 30 to 40 knots
through at least 10/0100. MNT obsc is expected through late tonight
over the mountains of PR.

&&

.MARINE…
Marine conditions will remain hazardous across the region through
the evening hours. Seas tonight will range from 6 to 8 feet but
will slightly improve on Tuesday. A small craft advisory is in
effect through Tuesday evening. Winds will be out of the east at
15 to 20 kts. There’s a high risk of rip currents for the
northern, eastern and southern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as
the beaches of Culbera and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS…
SJU 79 85 80 85 / 50 10 20 30
STT 80 82 80 82 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
PR…High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Central Interior-
Culebra-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and
Vicinity-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast-Southwest-Vieques-
Western Interior.

Flash Flood Watch until midnight AST tonight for Central
Interior-Culebra-Eastern Interior-Mayaguez and Vicinity-
North Central-Northeast-Northwest-Ponce and Vicinity-San
Juan and Vicinity-Southwest-Vieques-Western Interior.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Tuesday for Central Interior-
Northeast-Southeast.

Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM AST Tuesday for Southeast.

VI…High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for St Croix.

Flash Flood Watch until midnight AST tonight for St Croix-
St.Thomas…St. John…and Adjacent Islands.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for
St.Thomas…St. John…and Adjacent Islands.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for St Croix.

AM…Flash Flood Watch until midnight AST tonight for Caribbean
Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Coastal Waters OF
Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of Southern
USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Tuesday for Coastal Waters of
Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM AST Tuesday for Coastal Waters of
Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for Coastal
Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal
Waters of Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM.

High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM AST this evening through late
tonight for Coastal Waters of Southern Puerto Rico out 10
NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM AST Tuesday
for Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-
Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-
Coastal Waters of Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal
Waters of Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out
10 NM.

Gale Warning until 8 PM AST this evening for Anegada Passage
Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and USVI
from 10 NM to 19.5N-Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10
NM to 17N-Coastal Waters OF Northwestern Puerto Rico out 10
NM-Coastal Waters OF Southwestern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-
Coastal Waters of Northern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal
Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM-Coastal
Waters of Southern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-Coastal Waters of
Southern USVI Vieques and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM-
Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM AST Tuesday
for Anegada Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of
Puerto Rico and USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Caribbean Waters
of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N-Mona Passage Southward to
17N.

Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM AST this evening for Coastal Waters
of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM…TW
LONG TERM….TW
https://w1.weather.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU