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Note that this blog uses UTC time. It is Sept. 9th UTC, but still Sept. 8th EDT.


Hurricane Irma projected path-wind estimates and Nuclear Power Stations:

Above: Midnight UTC model; 8 pm EDT; Below: Earlier model which was available when we posted.

Apparently these maps shows the odds that the area will get tropical storm winds, though it doesn’t say.

Unlike STP Nuclear Operating Station, in Texas, during Harvey, Turkey Point and St. Lucie Nuclear Power Stations announced that they do not intend to ride out the storm at full power, but they have not yet shut-down either, as of early Friday morning, nor are they required to do so, until close to too late.

Turkey Point Nuclear Power Station and predicted storm surge:

See disclaimer and updates here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/214634.shtml?wsurge#contents. Most predicted storm surge levels near Turkey Point Nuclear Power Station appear to be over 6 ft but some may be over 9 ft, even though it lies behind barrier islands, unlike St. Lucie which sits on a barrier island: https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2016/10/06/st-lucie-nuclear-power-station-built-on-a-barrier-island-post-hurricane-camille-nuclear-foolishness-matthew-warning. Turkey Point appears to theoretically be safe from a storm surge even much higher than 9 ft, but whether this holds up to reality remains to be seen and warrants another post. The Turkey Point flood walkdown found problems, as expected. Whether or not these have been corrected, new problems can appear. A concern is the elevation of the non-nuclear (oil, gas) electrical generating stations at Turkey Pt, which seem more likely to get the 9 ft. plus. If they flood and there is some sort of fire or explosion then that could place the nuclear part in jeopardy.

Turkey Point Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Generating Station
We have yet to review St. Lucie this year, though relevant info appears in last year’s post. St. Lucie may miss the brunt of this storm. People outside of the nuclear power stations will probably never know for certain whether the nuclear power stations did hold up, unless there is a whistleblower. Clearly these nuclear power stations do not belong here and need to be shut-down and the spent nuclear fuel moved, where it will, of course, still be a hazard, especially considering the flimsy thin Holtec and Areva spent fuel canisters which are in wide use.

Crystal River Nuclear Power Station, apparently in Irma’s path, and which is undergoing decommissioning, may still have spent nuclear fuel on site and got an exemption to decrease its insurance coverage: https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1418/ML14183B477.pdf

Turkey Point Nuclear Power Station could get over one foot of rain (15 inches). St. Lucie Nuclear Power could still get the same amount of rain, though it is less clear.

Important links and information of various sorts regarding Irma from the Florida Governor: http://www.flgov.com/2017/09/08/gov-scott-issues-updates-on-hurricane-irma-preparedness-7/
Various model plots for Irma’s track: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11

National Hurricane Center Updates:
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…IRMA’S SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL MOVING OVER THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.2N 77.2W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 315 MI…510 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…924 MB…27.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for the southeastern Bahamas, except for Ragged Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna
Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas and Ragged Island
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 22.2 North, longitude 77.2 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is
expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma
should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central
Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the
southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely to
continue during the next day or two, but Irma is expected to remain
a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring over portions of the
central Bahamas, as well as Ragged Island. Hurricane conditions are
expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the
north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in
portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys
Saturday night or early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central
and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos…additional 1 to 3
inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward…4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina…4 to 7 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
morning across south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNNhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/082356.shtml?

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
…HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…
…HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA…
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 345 MI…555 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…925 MB…27.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of
Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the
peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast
of Florida to Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote
River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/
Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna
Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest
is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to
remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the
southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected
to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast
of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of
southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or
early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central
and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos…additional 1 to 3
inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward…4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina…4 to 7 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
morning across south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/082055.shtml