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Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
…IRMA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…
…HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.1N 77.7W
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…924 MB…27.29 INCHES

(See more below).

Florida Governor Updates on Hurricane Irma Preparedness; including useful links: http://www.flgov.com/2017/09/08/gov-scott-issues-updates-on-hurricane-irma-preparedness-7/

Various Hurricane Irma model plots: https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 090258
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…IRMA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA AS A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…
…HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.1N 77.7W
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…924 MB…27.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward on the east
coast of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west
coast of Florida to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward on the east coast
of Florida to the Volusia/Brevard County Line and on the west coast
of Florida to Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward on the west coast
of Florida to Suwanee River.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward on the east coast
of Florida to Fernandina Beach and on the west coast of Florida to
Indian Pass.

The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch for the
province of Matanzas to a Hurricane Warning. A Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad
de la Habana. The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for
Guantanamo have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Anclote River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia
County line
* North of Anclote River to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Anclote River
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, and Matanzas
* Central Bahamas and Ragged Island
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Fernandina Beach
* North and west of Anclote River to Indian Pass
* Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas, La Habana, and Ciudad de
la Habana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 77.7 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is
expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma
will move near the north coast of Cuba through Saturday, near the
Florida Keys Sunday morning, and then near the southwest coast of
Florida Sunday afternoon.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260
km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is once again a category 5 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…2 to 4 ft
Anclote River to Suwannee River…3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas…3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring over portions of the
central Bahamas, as well as Ragged Island. Hurricane conditions are
expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the
north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in
portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys
Saturday night and Sunday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches
Southern Cuba…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches
The Florida Panhandle…3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina…4 to 8 inches
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee…2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible from Saturday midday into
Sunday across central and south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/090258.shtml

000
WTNT41 KNHC 090259
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight has found that Irma has
re-intensified to category 5 strength. The plane measured a
maximum flight-level wind of 154 kt and SFMR winds of 140-145 kt in
the northwestern eyewall, so the initial intensity is raised to 140
kt. The hurricane is producing very deep convection in all
quadrants around the eye, which the Air Force flight measured to be
35 n mi wide.

Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than
expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.
The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning
west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to
the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time,
Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate
after 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and
then into Georgia. Mainly because Irma’s eye has not deviated from
its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted
slightly westward. Because of the hurricane’s angle of approach to
the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint
exactly where the center might move onshore.

If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move
inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not
lose much intensity during the next day or so. As we’ve stated
many times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36
hours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles.
After 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may
increase over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is
anticipated at that time. Because of the concerns in the track
forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong
intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the
west Florida coast. Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west
coast of Florida through 48 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida
Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the
southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of
inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a
life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all
actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow
evacuation instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 22.1N 77.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 22.6N 79.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.3N 80.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.5N 81.9W 115 KT 130 MPH…INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 31.6N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 35.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 14/0000Z 35.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/090259.shtml?