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2:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 8
Location: 22.0°N 76.0°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 925 mb
Max sustained: 155 mph; 250 km/hr


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.0N 75.3W
ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 405 MI…655 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…927 MB…27.38 INCHES


Hurricane Irma projected path-wind estimates and Nuclear Power Stations: Unlike STP Nuclear Operating Station, in Texas, during Hurricane Harvey, Turkey Point and St. Lucie Nuclear Power Stations say they do not intend to ride out the storm at full power, but they have not yet shut-down either, as of early this morning, nor are they required to do so, until close to too late.

Turkey Point Nuclear Power Station and predicted storm surge:
Most predicted storm surge levels near Turkey Point Nuclear Power Station appear to be over 6 ft but some may be over 9 ft, even though it lies behind barrier islands, unlike St. Lucie which sits on a barrier island: https://miningawareness.wordpress.com/2016/10/06/st-lucie-nuclear-power-station-built-on-a-barrier-island-post-hurricane-camille-nuclear-foolishness-matthew-warning. Turkey Point appears to theoretically be protected from storm surge greater than 9 ft, but whether this holds up to reality remains to be seen and warrants another post. The Turkey Point flood walkdown found problems, as expected. Whether or not these have been corrected, new problems can appear. We have yet to review St. Lucie this year, though relevant info appears in last year’s post. And, people outside of the nuclear power stations will probably never know for certain whether they did hold up, unless there is a whistleblower. Clearly these nuclear power stations do not belong here and need to be shut-down and the spent nuclear fuel moved, where it will, of course, still be a hazard, especially considering the thin and hence flimsy Holtec and Areva spent fuel canisters which are in wide use.

Turkey Point Nuclear Power Station could get over one foot of rain (15 inches). St. Lucie Nuclear Power could get the same amount of rain.

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
…EYE OF HURRICANE IRMA MONITORED BY HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES AND
CUBAN RADARS……HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 380 MI…610 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…925 MB…27.31 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands has been
discontinued….
” Read more here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/081741.shtml

11 AM Update:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 081450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…EYE OF HURRICANE IRMA MONITORED BY HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES AND
CUBAN RADARS…
…HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.0N 75.3W
ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 405 MI…655 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…927 MB…27.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Jupiter Inlet
northward to Sebastian Inlet and from Bonita Beach northward to
Venice.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of Sebastian Inlet to
Ponce Inlet.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the east
coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, and along the
west coast of Florida to Anclote River….

Read the Summary of advisories and warnings here or at the bottom of our blog post: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/081450.shtml

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes
indicate that Irma’s intensity remains at 130 kt, although this
value could be 5 kt higher or lower. The central pressure has been
oscillating around 927 mb.

The environment continues to be favorable for Irma to maintain its
category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles
could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours.
Nevertheless, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a
category 4 hurricane. Thereafter, interaction with land and an
increase in shear should induce gradual weakening.

Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of
Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12
kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the Bahamas through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will
spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the
adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major
hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of
the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. In particular, the threat
of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of
Florida has increased, and 6 to 12 feet of inundation above ground
level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening
situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to
protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation
instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 4 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida peninsula Saturday through
Monday. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida
peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North
Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are
more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from
Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.8N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.7N 80.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.0N 81.0W 125 KT 145 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1200Z 29.3N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 34.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/081451.shtml

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…EYE OF HURRICANE IRMA MONITORED BY HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES AND
CUBAN RADARS…
…HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.0N 75.3W
ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 405 MI…655 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…927 MB…27.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from Jupiter Inlet
northward to Sebastian Inlet and from Bonita Beach northward to
Venice.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from north of Sebastian Inlet to
Ponce Inlet.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the east
coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, and along the
west coast of Florida to Anclote River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to Ponce Inlet

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 75.3 West. Irma is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a
decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected
by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should
move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas today and
Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida
Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by both Air Force
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes was 927 mb (27.38 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…6 to 12 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Cape Sable including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
Ponce Inlet to Jupiter Inlet…3 to 6 ft
Venice to Captiva…3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands…15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave…1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos
Islands, with tropical storm and hurricane conditions ongoing in the
southeastern Bahamas. These conditions will move into the central
Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late today and
Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern
Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern Florida
and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic and Haiti…additional 1 to 4 inches.
Turks and Caicos…additional 2 to 4 inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.
The upper Florida Keys into southeast Florida…10 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
Lower Florida Keys…4 to 8 inches.
Eastern Florida northward into coastal Georgia…8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Western Florida peninsula…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Much of Georgia…South Carolina…and Western North Carolina…3 to
6 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should
start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States
later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/081450.shtml